Trump tariffs impacted June inflation
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While Tuesday's focus was on the tariff-related inflation hit to Treasuries, it's been a rough week for government bonds everywhere - especially in Japan as long-term yields there hit new highs this week ahead of the July 20 upper house election and related fiscal policy worries.
It's a trove of information for portfolio managers and macro-watchers to gauge, and trade policy news headlines are likely to continue breaking. On July 9, President Trump announced a surprise 50% levy on copper imports, followed by a steep 50% duty on Brazil. 1 Together, it put the materials sector in focus.
Indonesia also has agreed to purchase billions in U.S. energy, agriculture products and airplanes, Trump said July 15 in a social media post.
Markets aren’t acting like this is a reality, however. Benchmark 2-year U.S. Treasury note yields rose just two basis points following the inflation release, to 3.946%, and 10-year paper is holding at 4.475%. Stocks are also trading at the highest levels on record.
The Indian rupee fell on Wednesday as the latest U.S. inflation report showed that tariffs were beginning to feed into prices, weakening bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lifted U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index last month, raising the annual inflation rate to 2.7%.
U.S. inflation reached its highest level since February in June, with consumer prices rising 2.7% from a year earlier, in part because of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.